S&P 500’s Unusual September Rally Hints at Continued Gains
The S&P 500 defied historical trends by setting eight record highs in September, traditionally the weakest month for equities. This momentum follows five all-time highs in August, suggesting resilience despite seasonal headwinds.
Historical data from Carson Group reveals a 63.6% probability of October gains following September records, with average returns of 0.8%. The fourth quarter shows even stronger prospects—positive 90.9% of the time with 4.7% average returns.
A potential five-month winning streak for the index, should September close positively, typically precedes further upside: 0.8% one-month, 2.7% three-month, and 12.6% twelve-month average returns. While the September surge is atypical, the statistical bias favors continued strength.
